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Emerging technologies will control the global power balance



A new kind of global competition is unfolding, with China and the United States vying for dominance in the realm of emerging technologies. This fierce battle over artificial intelligence (AI), 5G networks, quantum computing, and more, will likely reshape the international balance of global tech power for decades to come.

Battlegrounds for global tech power

Emerging technologies are at the forefront of this geopolitical contest. These technologies are not just tools of economic growth but also instruments of national power and security. They include:

Artificial Intelligence (AI)

Imagine software that goes far beyond just following instructions. AI systems are designed to process vast amounts of information, identify patterns, and make predictions based on that data.

They can learn from experience, improving their decision-making over time. This translates to everything from better medical diagnoses to more efficient manufacturing processes, and even the potential for machines to become creative.

5G wireless networks

Think of 5G as the backbone for an ultra-connected world. This next-generation wireless technology isn’t just about faster phone downloads. Its real power lies in incredibly low latency (meaning minimal delays) and significantly higher capacity.

This could enable seamless communication between massive numbers of devices, powering things like self-driving car networks, remote surgery, and truly ‘smart’ cities.

Quantum computing

Traditional computers work with bits – the familiar ones and zeros. Quantum computers operate on a mind-bending level, using quantum bits (or qubits) that take advantage of the strange behavior of particles at the atomic level.

This could open the door to solving incredibly complex problems that traditional computers simply can’t handle. This includes revolutionizing drug development, financial modeling, and materials science.

IoT (Internet of things)

Imagine your everyday world infused with connectivity. Not just phones and laptops, but appliances, vehicles, even your clothing becoming smart – gathering data and communicating with each other. This is the internet of things (IoT).

It creates a web of intelligence with the potential to make our lives safer, more efficient, and more convenient, but also raises concerns about privacy and security.

Big data

Our digital footprints are massive. Every website visited, online purchase, even just moving around with a smartphone generates information. Big data is the science of analyzing this massive information trove.

It helps companies understand consumer behavior, researchers discover hidden patterns, and can potentially drive innovations in various fields. But it also raises ethical concerns about how this data is collected and used.

China’s power ascends as global tech giant

China has demonstrated significant progress in these emerging technological fields. Their investments in research and development, coupled with a strategic focus on these areas, have yielded impressive results.

“China’s growing power and expansion in emerging tech are key to driving massive shifts in technology and the geopolitical landscape,” says Dr. Maria Papageorgiou from the University of Exeter.

This rapid development has prompted a response from the United States, which is working to maintain its technological standing. The USA is actively involved in research and development efforts, while also seeking to bolster alliances with other countries to counter China’s growing influence.

This intense competition is likely to have significant ramifications for the future trajectory of technological innovation and the global balance of power.

Future weapons vs. future convenience

The significant concern surrounding this technological competition centers on the potential military applications of these advancements.

Some experts worry that these powerful technologies, like artificial intelligence and advanced computing, could be weaponized, creating significant advantages for the nation that controls them.

For instance, China’s development of sophisticated systems raises questions about their ability to potentially bypass or outmaneuver existing US defense mechanisms.

However, it’s crucial to recognize the vast potential for civilian applications within these same emerging technologies. These advancements hold the promise of significant improvements in our daily lives.

From revolutionizing healthcare with AI-powered diagnostics to fostering a more interconnected world through 5G networks, the potential benefits are undeniable.

The key question remains: will the focus be on weaponization or harnessing these technologies for positive civilian applications? The outcome of this competition will determine which path we take and the impact it has on the global landscape.

The power of allies for global tech power

The United States recognizes the limitations of a solo approach in this technological race. To maintain its competitive edge, the USA has actively pursued the development of strategic alliances with other countries.

Key partners include nations like Japan and South Korea, both of which boast significant technological capabilities. This collaborative effort allows them to pool resources for research and development, accelerating innovation across various emerging technology fields.

However, the competition extends beyond software and algorithms. A crucial element lies in the physical infrastructure that underpins these technologies – microchips. These tiny electronic components are the brains behind modern devices, and their production capabilities are a vital battleground.

The USA and its allies are working together to establish a secure and reliable supply chain for microchip production, aiming to lessen dependence on other nations and maintain control over this critical resource.

This collaborative approach highlights the multifaceted nature of the competition, encompassing not just software and theoretical advancements, but also the physical infrastructure that makes it all possible.

Semiconductors in global tech landscape

Microchips, often referred to as semiconductors, are the unsung heroes of this technological rivalry. These tiny, intricate circuits are the fundamental building blocks of modern electronics.

They act as the brains behind everything from smartphones and computers to advanced weaponry and medical equipment. Essentially, whoever controls the production and supply of these microchips holds significant influence in the global tech landscape.

This understanding has fueled intense competition between China and the United States. Both nations are pouring significant resources into research and development to not only improve chip design and functionality but also to establish independent and robust domestic production capabilities. This drive for self-sufficiency has led to a series of strategic maneuvers.

The USA, for instance, has implemented export controls to limit the flow of advanced chip technology to China. China, in response, has ramped up its own domestic production efforts and aggressively pursued acquisitions of foreign chip manufacturers.

These actions have heightened diplomatic tensions, as each nation seeks to gain an advantage in this critical sector.

Future global tech power

The struggle for dominance in the microchip industry is a complex one, with far-reaching consequences for the global balance of power and technological innovation.

That’s the million-dollar question. Will this tech race usher in a better future for everyone? Or will it lead to more division and conflict? Like most things in world politics, there’s no easy answer.

However, one thing is certain: the technologies shaping our future are being developed right now in the heat of this competition. It’s a fascinating, somewhat scary, but undeniably exciting time to be alive.

The study is published in Chinese Political Science Review.


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