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U.S. Open Cup final prediction, odds, betting tips, best bets for Lionel Messi, Inter Miami vs Houston Dynamo



The 108th edition of the U.S. Open Cup, the oldest trophy in competitive U.S. sports, comes to a conclusion as Lionel Messi hopes to lead Inter Miami to its second-ever title, hosting the Houston Dynamo on Wednesday evening.

Inter Miami, just three years old as a club, had not won a trophy in team history, but Messi changed that lightning-quick by leading them to the Leagues Cup title just weeks after joining the team.

Now, despite also chasing an unlikely MLS playoff spot, manager Gerardo Martino has clearly prioritized this chance for silverware. With Messi struggling for consistent fitness, Martino has been exceedingly careful with his 36-year-old superstar, who has received significant rest while the club insists it is simply load management.

The Dynamo, who won their club’s first U.S. Open Cup in 2018, sit fourth in the Western Conference but have just one victory in their last four matches, including last time out when they were unable to beat 10-man Sporting KC despite playing a man up for over half the match.

MORE: Odds for Lionel Messi to score a goal against Houston Dynamo in the US Open Cup final

Inter Miami vs Houston Dynamo match facts

  • Date: Wednesday, September 25, 2023
  • Kickoff Time: 8:30 p.m. ET / 5:30 p.m. PT
  • Location: DRV PNK Stadium (Ft. Lauderdale, Florida)
  • Official: Jon Freemon
  • Last meeting: Houston Dynamo 1-0 Inter Miami (Apr. 22, 2023 | MLS)

Inter Miami vs Houston Dynamo prediction, odds

  • To win the cup: Inter Miami (-200)
  • Score prediction: Inter Miami 2-0 Houston Dynamo

While Lionel Messi’s club was heavily favored early, the odds for Inter Miami have come down considerably over the past few days. They sat at -275 to win the trophy and -155 to win in 90 minutes, but those have been reeled in significantly, now standing at just -200 to hoist the cup and -115 to do so in regulation.

Still, it’s likely that Messi can see this team through to victory. While they needed penalties to get past Nashville SC in the Leagues Cup final, Houston are less tenacious of a club, and in their home stadium, they should manage to pull through.

  Inter Miami
win (90 mins)
Draw Houston
win (90 mins)
Both teams
to score Y / N
Over / Under
3.5 goals
Inter Miami
lift trophy
lift trophy
-115 +250 +225 -200 / +135 +130 / -190 -200 +140

In Canada, bet U.S. Open Cup at Sports Interaction: See the latest odds for Inter Miami vs. Houston here

Inter Miami vs Houston Dynamo: best bet

  • Pick: Over 3.5 goals
  • Odds: +130 (BetMGM)

While this is normally an incredibly high bar to clear, for Inter Miami it’s absolutely not, especially with Messi involved. In 12 matches in which Messi appears, Inter Miami has been held to a clean sheet just once, scoring multiple goals on all but two occasions, including all 10 times they faced someone other than Nashville SC.

Early in Messi’s tenure, they seemed improved defensively as well, but that has all come apart a bit of late. Goalkeeper Drake Callender has begun to struggle, and young Tomas Aviles has made a few errors while filling in for regulars thanks to Tata Martino’s squad rotation.

There’s a good chance this match is a high-scoring affair.

Inter Miami vs Houston Dynamo prop bet

  • Pick: Leonardo Campana anytime goal scorer
  • Odds: +180 (BetMGM)

With the public backing Messi in droves, the value on him to score just isn’t there. Yet the Argentine can also create huge quantities of goalscoring chances, and Leo Campana is Inter Miami’s most in-form attacker not named Messi.

He didn’t get a goal in his 90 minutes against Orlando City last time out, but he mustered four shots and gave himself a solid chance. Including that match, he has scored in three of his last five starts, bagging a brace all three times.

Tata Martino has done his best to get Josef Martinez going, but Campana is far more likely to score, thus he should get the start in a cup final, buzzing to keep the form alive.

Inter Miami vs Houston Dynamo live stream, TV channel

MORE: Watch Premier League matches live with Fubo in USA

  TV channel Streaming
USA English: CBS Sports Network
Spanish: Telemundo, Universo
English: Fubo, Paramount+
SpanishFubo, Peacock
Canada DAZN

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